Document Type

Article

Publication Date

12-2000

Abstract

This article argues that conventional presidential election-outcome forecasting models based on situational and structural economic and political variables can be refined by acknowledging the pivotal role of personality in contemporary presidential campaigns and incorporating candidate personality variables as publicly perceived into predictive models.

Using the 2000 U.S. presidential election as a case study, it is contended that George W. Bush’s “dispositional advantage” effectively neutralized Al Gore’s “situational advantage” with respect to electability.

Comments

The research was conducted at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics (USPP), a collaborative faculty–student research program in the psychology of politics at St. John’s University and the College of St. Benedict in Collegeville and St. Joseph, Minnesota, directed by Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., associate professor of psychology, who specializes in the psychological assessment of presidential candidates and world leaders.

More information on 2000 presidential nominees

George W. Bush » http://personality-politics.org/george-w-bush

Al Gore » http://personality-politics.org/al-gore

Related reports

Predicting the outcome of the 2000 presidential election: Why Al Gore will not be elected president in 2000 (Aubrey Immelman, Clio’s Psyche, vol. 6, no. 2, September 1999, pp. 73–75).

The Political Personalities of 2000 U.S. Presidential Candidates George W. Bush and Al Gore. Paper presented by Aubrey Immelman at the 23rd Annual Scientific Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, Seattle, WA, July 1–4, 2000. Abstract and link for full-text (49 pages; PDF) download at Digital Commons: http://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/psychology_pubs/35/

Moral Crusader vs. Flyboy: The Political Personalities of Al Gore and George W. Bush. Forum presentation by Aubrey Immelman, November 3, 2000. Forum Lectures, 351. Digital Commons: http://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/forum_lectures/351/

Projecting the Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election: The Personal Electability Index » http://personality-politics.org/projecting-the-winner-of-the-2016-presidential-election-the-personal-electability-index

Projecting the Winner of the 2020 Presidential Election: The Personal Electability Index » http://personality-politics.org/projecting-the-winner-of-the-2020-presidential-election-the-personal-electability-index

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