Though a large body of literature analyzes commodity markets in general as well as the crude oil market, little work looks at the determinants of gasoline price shocks and which variables contributed to specific historical shocks. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, one can determine how gasoline prices typically respond to shocks in price determinants, how much each variable, on average, contributes to the variation in gasoline, and which variables influenced gasoline prices during particular shocks. This paper proposes a simple SVAR model of the gasoline market and uses the model to determine what caused gasoline prices to decline between June 2014 and February 2015.
Spillum, Travis A., "Consumer Gasoline Prices in 2014: What Caused the Decline?" (2017). All College Thesis Program, 2016-present. 39.